MBA projects a less than one percent drop in home sales
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PrintThe Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is projecting that total existing home sales for 2009 will be about 4.9 million units. This is a less than 1 percent drop in home sales compared to 2008. However, their projections for new home sales show quite a sharp decline. The MBA believe that new home sales for 2009 will decline about 17 percent compared to 2008.
Home sales forecast for 2010
The MBA holds out a rosier picture for 2010, projecting about a 20 percent increase in new home sales for that year, they also project a 9 percent increase in total existing home sales for 2010. This puts the total existing homes sales projection to around 5.3 million units next year.
Median home prices for new and existing homes are expected to continue their decline this year, falling about 9 percent and 13 percent, respectively. However, they are hopeful that prices should stabilize by mid-2010 and post a slight increase for all of 2010.
Purchase originations should post another 18 percent drop to $706 billion and should pick up about 20 percent in 2010, as both new and existing home sales increase and home prices stabilize. They also project that refinance originations should increase by about 57 percent to $1.19 trillion in 2009 but will drop about 36 percent in 2010 as mortgage rates rise further.
Total mortgage production will be up about 17 percent to $1.90 trillion this year from an estimated $1.62 trillion in 2008. Total originations should see a decline of about 15 percent in 2010 to $1.62 trillion as a drop in refinance originations outweighs an increase in purchase originations.
